Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 91534.324856 96515.441864 101489.994210 106827.325680 112388.232647 118007.801998 124112.330369
2024-12-29 84355.179981 92069.109005 99982.255612 108695.729740 118010.108530 127657.473654 138393.991178
2025-01-05 78794.122927 88387.097989 98438.129761 109731.986880 122045.883223 135041.885176 149771.661590
2025-01-12 73864.282224 84805.846348 96476.463305 109814.212325 124597.198103 140442.012389 158670.254234
2025-01-19 69647.004002 81625.371442 94604.455847 109658.817802 126583.582343 144966.976561 166386.900719
2025-01-26 67377.189581 80399.248558 94704.054868 111510.173959 130637.051905 151649.966024 176400.378575
2025-02-02 65416.112239 79358.788188 94868.143254 113302.945115 134516.740333 158061.735890 186064.464369
2025-02-09 63110.603922 77775.132754 94282.719692 114120.957217 137187.991282 163035.403176 194054.477158
2025-02-16 60499.158900 75699.575656 93007.891377 114028.946990 138714.691092 166627.833083 200412.412275
2025-02-23 58496.242292 74241.902300 92363.924090 114589.603331 140929.808194 170962.911539 207597.823495
2025-03-02 56404.858626 72584.255991 91399.598193 114694.414258 142545.253720 174554.833018 213891.738876
2025-03-09 55284.992140 72043.341156 91716.126029 116280.953500 145883.058677 180149.073080 222538.973256
2025-03-16 53167.021570 70234.875919 90475.923358 115983.373942 146982.901243 183141.204541 228188.896606
2025-03-23 52211.930863 69826.570611 90908.065524 117693.824359 150493.697879 189011.994010 237300.724833
2025-03-30 50986.322627 69029.100018 90820.493162 118734.608947 153172.006258 193883.727786 245236.068987
2025-04-06 49363.279120 67670.412362 89986.164373 118808.008470 154632.996200 197269.045599 251379.179091
2025-04-13 47719.181864 66227.823899 88995.467028 118639.294812 155757.301153 200220.809207 256987.162639
2025-04-20 47171.474076 66170.794026 89726.660755 120610.791650 159526.120391 206403.134311 266555.642800
2025-04-27 46631.358010 66097.717298 90418.029715 122520.039214 163216.775672 212503.520175 276057.712731
2025-05-04 45657.734764 65421.397851 90309.780371 123391.111061 165592.894717 216984.845403 283585.863719
2025-05-11 44307.986953 64205.591257 89469.743297 123293.124505 166721.002749 219906.445768 289185.923436
2025-05-18 43320.327964 63441.840228 89188.318792 123890.131875 168714.705407 223900.312669 296127.516536
2025-05-25 42174.578351 62430.805824 88553.219026 124001.734367 170068.915667 227084.753311 302063.226460